Dear Editor,
The 2025 elections are just five days away, with PPP/C, APNU, and WIN leading the campaign for state power and control over oil revenues. Voters are focusing on these three main parties, while smaller groups like AFC, FGM, and ALP remain at the margins. Remember, never underestimate any competitor – unexpected outcomes, like Kamala Persad Bissessar’s UNC landslide win in Trinidad and Tobago, can happen.
After political rallies and meetings, each party might want to assess their chances at the 2025 election polls. If they conduct internal party polls, they will get a good idea of their standing. They might even want to calculate projected seats. How many votes must a party get at the 2025 elections before it earns a seat? At the 2020 elections that figure was 7,082.
GECOM says that there are currently 757,690 registered voters. In 2020, the number was 661,378, indicating an increase of 96,312 voters in 2025. This should not surprise anyone. In 2015, for example, the total registered voters were 570,708, which means that there was an increase of 90,670 in 2020 from 2015.
The increase in the number of registered voters in 2025 was also due to individuals in the 13-18 age group (estimated at 92,725) attaining the age of 18 and registering to vote, as well as additional people above 18 being registered.
If the voter turnout rate is 70 per cent in 2025, as happened in 2020, it is estimated that 530,383 individuals (757,690 x 0.70) would take part in voting. Of this total, about 6,000 votes may be spoilt or rejected, resulting in an estimated 524,383 valid votes (530,383 – 6,000) cast. Dividing this number (524,383) by 65 seats indicates that approximately 8,067 votes are required to secure one seat. To obtain a majority of seats (33) in the 2025 elections, a party would need at least 266,211 valid votes. It is also possible, depending on specific circumstances, for a party to win a seat with fewer than the standard 8,067 votes, as had occurred in 2020.
Let us illustrate this point by reference to the 2020 election results. The PPP/C received 233,336 valid votes; when that number was divided by the seat allocation of 7082, that gave them 32.94 seats. They were allocated initially the 32 seats. The APNU+AFC received 217,920 valid votes; when that was divided by 7082, that gave them 30.77 seats. Their initial allocation was 30 seats. The smaller (joiner) parties received 5214 valid votes, and when that number was divided by 7082,that gave them 0.74 seats. They received no initial seat. Total seats allocated initially were PPP/C 32, APNU+AFC 30, and smaller parties 0, making it a total of 62 seats.
Thus, there were 3 remaining seats to be allocated. The 3 seats were distributed according to the descending order of the parties’ fractional votes: PPP/C received an additional seat with 0.94 fractional seat (6653 votes); APNU+AFC obtained an additional seat with 0.77 fractional seat (5454 votes); and smaller parties gained a seat with 0.74 fractional seat (5214 votes).
The smaller parties did not meet the 7082 votes per seat threshold in 2020 but still secured a seat using the fraction method. This situation could occur again in 2025.