Dear Editor,
The phones have been ringing from early morning asking (my views and interpretation) about the findings of the poll published in KN (Aug 27). There have been nervous people all around. As I replied, I never dismissed or attacked the findings of any poll. As expected, the poll will be attacked by paid defenders (and trolls) of all the parties. In third world countries like Guyana, pollsters are known to be ferociously attacked and victimised for penning their views or releasing polls, regardless how scientific they are (were). Parties and candidates with low numbers tend to attack findings. In this UG students’ poll, all parties have lower than expected numbers as per conversations.
KN is saluted for publishing the findings. All polls and elections analyses are welcomed. An individual or group’s views, new and important to the nation around this election season, should be published even if one may disagree with it. The public looks forward for ‘something’ on the election, and KN has responded by publishing this poll. The public is appreciative although many have dismissed the findings. Those wanting a minority government cheer it.
The country should commend that group of students (and faculty, if any) at UG who claimed they conducted the poll and released some of their findings in terms of seat projects. Polls are generally done by individuals (academics) who studied sociology, political science, and statistics; polling is not taught in Guyana, but is known to be taught in all three disciplines at universities in the developed countries. We must salute the group of students for having the courage (although we don’t know all their names) to conduct a poll. Khemraj Harryram is very brave to attach his name to a letter interpreting the results. His courage is saluted!
I do have a view on the interpreted findings. All polls conducted around the same time give similar results. Several polls were conducted in Guyana including by ABCE interests. A poll was conducted by CADRES recently. The PPP commissioned ongoing tracking polls. So, they will all have similar findings depending on ethnic factor.
The timeline of the UG students’ poll is not known. A poll is a reflection of findings at a particular time. Views and support are dynamic meaning they change over time although in third world, polarised societies like Guyana, views and party affiliation tend to be static. A poll a week or weeks ago may not reflect exact same findings today. That is why in developed countries, pollsters do tracking polls, some daily while others every few days and yet others at regular intervals up till the eve of the election as in USA. This writer has been conducting tracking polls in Guyana with up-to-date findings having the PPP in the lead, making significant gains among Africans and Mixed and capturing the bulk of the Venezuelan returnees and migrants and Commonwealth voters. And WIN has been very competitive taking voters from PPP, APNU, and AFC as the UG students’ poll also found. Indians have restricted their voting to PPP and WIN with low cross overs to parties led by Africans.
It is not known how the UG students’ poll was conducted in terms of percentages by ethnicity; voters in Guyana generally are influenced by race and the ethnic breakdown is not known. It is believed that the UG poll was conducted randomly and by intercept contact or visit at homes. Telephone polls are not reliable in Guyana setting.
Generally, findings of polls don’t project the number of voters a party will get but give percentages; Harryram has fearlessly done both. There is usually a margin of error factor. Generally, the error is linked to sample size which for a sample of 4,900 would be very small. But based on the ethnic composition or sub-sample, the error could be up to 4 per cent which translates into about two or three seats up or down. It is extremely unlikely the incumbent party will get less than what is projected.
There are other issues with the poll but no need to mention them. It is important to remind readers that a poll is not ordained by God. It is a ‘guesstimate’ of support at a particular time. What was found a week ago may not be what holds on election day. Voters do change their mind on election day and any numbers can play. What the students found are not likely to hold on September 1.
The UG students are lauded for their field work and Harryram applauded for interpreting the findings and appending his name. KN has published a poll that is the subject of a lot of discussions around Guyana and the diaspora based on emails and phone calls I received.