Dear Editor,
Guyanese repeatedly asked me whether I think President Trump will launch strikes on or invade Venezuela to take Nicholas Maduro out or topple him. Most, but not all, Guyanese consider Maduro as a threat to Guyana (claiming two-thirds of our territory and issuing veiled threats) and have no issue seeing him out of power.
Reporters repeatedly asked President Trump versions of the same question posed to me — whether American troops will invade or bomb Venezuela. The President did not respond directly, but he did hint there will be land strikes to take out drug making factories and camps of what are labelled as terrorist organizations (shipping drugs to USA that kill thousands of Americans annually). Nicholas Maduro has been labeled as head of a terrorist organization; Maduro has denied it. Maduro has asked to meet with Trump Administration for discussions on varied issues. President Trump did say he is willing to meet with Venezuela leadership when asked by reporters. He hinted he will send emissaries to meet with Maduro – perhaps to convince him to leave office.
If there is talk, there will be no immediate invasion or land strikes; but strikes are inevitable unless Maduro himself decides to make a variety of concessions on energy exploration and development, including compensation to Exxon and other oil companies that were nationalized, agrees to destroy all the drug labs operating within Venezuela, and cracks down on criminal gangs named by Trump. Venezuela is a small player on drug production. The drugs come mostly from Colombia, Bolivia, etc. Venezuela jungle air strips are used to transport the drugs to Central America and from there to Mexico and USA. Drugs are also transported to Europe and Canada and we in Guyana also get our share that has been destroying lives. As reported in the Guyana press, secret air strips and even small aircrafts were uncovered. A lot of drugs were also discovered linking some ranking police, soldiers and other Guyanese. American Intelligence also reported that Guyana was (and probably still is) used as a transshipment point for drugs to the developed countries where they fetch high prices. There were countless reports of drugs being seized in Guyana and overseas coming from Guyana.
It is unlikely that Maduro will make sweeping concessions to Trump, leaving open the possibility of more strikes on drug boats and even on land; there was over a dozen missile strikes on boats and over seventy killed. Drug trafficking has been used as reason for the military strikes. Trump will use that reason for land strikes.
Several members of Trump’s cabinet will like to see the back of Maduro describing him as an illegal ruler having rigged last year’s elections. Strikes on land or even against Maduro’s military machine and even on Maduro himself cannot be ruled out. But Trump himself had said during the 2024 election campaign that he wants USA to withdraw from foreign involvement. The US has not had a good record on regime change – remember Guyana multiple times that produced bad governments, Haiti, DR, Chile, Argentina, and a host of other Latin countries, Iraq, Afghanistan, etc. There are too many risks involved in an invasion like what happened in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, etc. Trump will like to see Maduro go but will not like to get bogged down in a land invasion or war that becomes a costly quagmire. Americans don’t have an appetite for a long occupation of any country.
Strikes on Venezuela are inevitable, but a full-scale invasion may be out of question immediately even though USA military is ready and all the naval ships are in place and soldiers battle ready. Troops have been undergoing military training for an invasion in Puerto Rico and troops as well as ships have even visited Trinidad.
Can the Maduro regime survive air powered military strikes? Not likely! And Guyanese will not have any sympathy or empathy if the Maduro regime falls.