Dear Editor,
The September 1st 2025 national elections confirmed that Guyana’s political landscape is complex. Voting patterns changed. Generally accepted assumptions were challenged.
Ethnic Voting? – A major assumption is that ethnic ancestry determines how people vote. This belief cannot fully explain the political impact of the changing ethnic characteristics of the Guyanese nation. In National Population Censuses, Guyanese consciously self-identify themselves as being of seven (7), not six (6), ethnic ancestries – Indigenous/Amerindian, African, Indian, ethnically Mixed, Portuguese, Chinese and European. Since independence, the percentages of Guyanese of Mixed ancestry and of Indigenous/Amerindian ancestry are growing, while the percentages of Guyanese of Indian ancestry and African ancestry are declining.
For the 2025 elections, here is my estimation of how the seven ancestries made up the 438,467 Guyanese who cast valid votes – Indian ancestry 37.6% [164,725 votes]; African ancestry 28.6% [125,549 votes]; ethnically Mixed ancestry 21.7% [95,184 votes]; and Indigenous/Amerindian ancestry 12% [52,438 votes]. Portuguese, Chinese and European ancestries together were 0.1% [571 votes].
Across the ten regions, the presence of the four main ethnic ancestries varied considerably. The estimated percentages of voters by ancestry were: across the four hinterland regions (1, 7, 8 and 9) – Indigenous/Amerindian 66%, Mixed 27%, African 5%, and Indian 2%; across the five coastal regions (2, 3, 4, 5 and 6), the percentages were reversed – Indian 49%, African 25%, Mixed 19% and Indigenous/Amerindian 7%; and in central Region 10, African 48%, Mixed 42%, Indigenous/Amerindian 9%, and Indian 1%.
Voters of Mixed ancestry were the best distributed across the country – ranging from a minimum of 12% in Region 9 up to 43% in Region 7. If any party only thinks and talks about 6 ancestries, thereby unintentionally excluding Guyanese of Mixed ancestry, it could risk failure in future elections!
Based on these ethnic demographics, the winning strategy for any party is to achieve growing and sustainable support among the four main ethnic ancestries in each region. This strategy was employed by the PPP/C, led by the phenomenal President Irfaan Ali and General Secretary of the PPP/C Bharrat Jagdeo. Its 2020-2025 government delivered inclusive ‘One Guyana’ economic, social, legal, environmental, technological, and security programmes that attracted Guyanese of all ethnic ancestries, genders, ages and social classes.
The PPP/C was re-elected because it diversified and expanded its support base to the next level. It won an average 63.8% majority of the valid votes in six regions (1, 2, 3, 5, 6 and 9) [see GECOM]; note that Indian ancestry voters were an estimated average 36% in those regions. The PPP/C also won an average 49.1% plurality of the valid votes in Regions 4 and 8 with an increase of 7.1% in votes over 2020; note that Indian ancestry voters were an estimated average 17% for these two regions. Even in Regions 7 and 10, which were won by the WIN party, the PPP/C won an average 27.8% of the valid votes with an increase of 1.4% in votes over 2020; note that Indian ancestry voters were only an estimated average 4% in those regions.
Compared to 2020, 23,902 more voters of Mixed, Indigenous/Amerindian and African ancestries supported the PPP/C. Those votes were absolutely essential for the PPP/C to win the Presidency and a 7-seat majority in the National Assembly. Its overwhelming support among Indian ancestry voters was also crucial. In 2020, voters who were not of Indian ancestry (the other 6 ancestries) comprised an estimated 25.5% of the PPP/C’s total votes. In 2025, that percentage increased to an estimated 34.2%.
Notwithstanding these positive advances, the ‘big picture’ reveals the complexity of politics in Guyana. There are still striking polarities in the voting patterns of the four main Guyanese ethnic ancestries. Among Indian ancestry voters, the PPP/C got an estimated 97% support; the ‘combined opposition’ [the WIN + APNU/AFC/ALP/FGM parties] got 3%. Among African ancestry voters, the ‘combined opposition’ got 91% support; the PPP/C got 9%. Among Mixed ancestry voters, the ‘combined opposition’ got 64% support; the PPP/C got 36%. Among Indigenous/Amerindian voters, the PPP/C got 70% support; the ‘combined opposition’ got 30%.
A Two-Party System? – Another major assumption is that national elections are a two-party contest between the People’s Progressive Party and the People’s National Congress. This is not accurate because since the early 1960s and especially since 2006, a significant percentage of Guyanese has always wanted a viable third political party.
The 2025 elections illuminated the existence of this relatively large block of voters. Never before has a third party won 24.9% of all valid votes and 16 seats in the National Assembly! The 3-month old WIN party won significant support among three of the four main ethnic ancestries; 43% of African ancestry voters, 39% of Mixed ancestry voters, and 25% of Indigenous/Amerindian voters.
In addition to getting support from first-time voters, WIN won over a massive number of voters who had previously voted for the APNU/AFC coalition. In the 2020 elections, the APNU/AFC coalition got 217,920 votes (47.34% of the total 460,352 valid votes). In 2025, they got 86,903 votes (19.82% of the total 438,467 valid votes); a devastating loss of 60.12% in valid votes!
In Regions 2 and 7, the WIN party won over some voters of Mixed, Indian and Indigenous/Amerindian ancestries who had voted for the PPP/C in 2020. In these two regions, PPP/C votes decreased by 1,458, compared to 2020. WIN won a total of 12,498 votes, increasing the ‘combined opposition’ [WIN + APNU/AFC/ALP/FGM] support by 2,328 votes, compared to 2020.
A Landslide? – A third assumption was that the PPP/C would win a landslide. Even with the second lowest turnout of voters in the 12 elections before 1968 and after 1985, the PPP/C’s victory was historically unprecedented because it achieved the largest number of votes ever (242,498 with an increase of 9,162 over 2020); its 55.3% majority equaled its 1997 performance which is the largest percentage ever won by any party in free and fair elections. In 2025, an estimated 20.8% of African and Mixed ancestry voters supported the PPP/C. This was a significant forward advance because, in 2020, the PPP/C got 12.2% support among African and Mixed ancestry voters.
But, there were an estimated 220,733 voters of African and Mixed ethnic ancestries in 2025 – 50.3% of the 438,467 total valid votes. This means an estimated 91% of African ancestry voters and 64% of Mixed ancestry voters did not vote for the re-election of the PPP/C government! Therefore, the PPP/C’s impressive victory was a significant breakthrough but it was not, in the strictest sense, a landslide because it did not achieve majorities in two of the four main ethnic ancestries.
‘The Elephant in the Room’ – The 2025 elections highlights two obvious questions that most of us avoid talking about because it is uncomfortable and controversial to do so. Since independence, the 2020-2025 government of President Ali had the best record ever for providing citizens, including Guyanese of African and Mixed ancestries, with universal access to: annual financial grants for every primary and secondary school student; free University of Guyana education; tens of thousands of free online scholarships with foreign universities; annual salary increases and bonuses for employees in the large public sector; the creation of thousands of jobs; new hospitals and schools; one of the best housing programmes in the world; new road, water and electricity infrastructure to improve the quality of living in hinterland, rural and urban communities; financial grants to farmers, small business people and fisher folk; free technical and business training for women, youth and people with disabilities; the removal of taxes; cash grants to every Guyanese 18 years and older, and much more.
Then how come, based on their lived experience, 174,734 (79.2%) Guyanese of African and Mixed ancestries decided not to vote for the re-election of the PPP/C government? Secondly, why only 58.40% of registered voters turned out to vote in 2025? Of the 12 free and fair elections since 1953, only the 1957 elections had a lower turnout of 55.7%. One of the main reasons could be what Valery Giscard d’Estaing, former President of France, once advised: “You can’t build a society purely on interests; you need a sense of belonging.”
All of us in the Guyanese family are “beautifully flawed and perfectly imperfect” human beings. This is a fantastic opportunity for PPP/C members and supporters to connect and socialize, in a respectful and compassionate way, with the 109,066 Guyanese who supported the WIN party, and the 86,903 Guyanese supporters of the APNU/AFC/ALP/FGM parties. By engaging and listening, hopefully we will learn and understand what these Guyanese think and feel is required for belonging to ‘One Guyana’. The next letter will explore the negative consequences for the transformation of Guyana if we ignore or walk away from ‘the elephant in the room’.