Dear Editor,
With the fog of the recent surgical strike on Caracas to extricate President Maduro slowly lifting, the political and economic direction of future Venezuela/US relations and the direction of Venezuela itself under Delcy Rodriguez its newly installed President is becoming clearer with every passing day.
In the meanwhile, condemnations of the attack on the Venezuelan capital and ‘kidnapping’ of Maduro continue to circulate world-wide by governments and non-state actors traditionally friendly to Venezuela. Condemnations at UN Security Council described US actions as a ‘blatant violation of international law and of Venezuela’s sovereignty.’ Outside the UN, many have called the operation an actualisation of the Monroe Doctrine and demanded the immediate release of Maduro.
With Maduro out of the way, and Machado ‘thrown under the bus’ a pathway was opened up for the Trump and the Rodriguez administrations to proceed, albeit riskily, following agreements apparently reached between Venezuela and the US particularly in respect to governance matters and Venezuela’s energy sector.
Rodriguez is riding a tiger. The US has set a preferred course for her to follow by way of compellence or coercion. President Trump has threatened that any divergence would result in a ‘second wave of attacks’ and possibly ‘boots on the ground.’ Small wonder why the heavy military and naval presence currently surrounding Venezuela has not stood down. Trump has bluntly warned Rodriguez that she could suffer a worse fate than Maduro.
Rodriguez comes from a progressive political and revolutionary background. Ideologically, she is a committed Chavista and believer in the Bolivarian revolution. She held several key positions in Venezuelan state and government. She is knowledgeable of the border controversy with Guyana and the case presently before the ICJ. Whether she can temper the steel internally on that and other thorny issues is yet to be seen. But one thing is clear, she is in office but not in power.
From all indications, Maduro’s removal has apparently cleared the way for the introduction of reforms; for evolution not revolution. Apparently, a decision in favour of decapitation rather than regime change was adopted with Maduro ending up as the ‘fall guy.’
Rodriguez has since replaced Maduro as the constitutional Interim President. Indications are that a more moderate, if not accommodating approach would be adopted by Venezuela towards the US; the gradual toning down of anti-US rhetoric is anticipated and more budgeted resources will go to improve the living standards of the Venezuelan people. Time will tell.
Reports indicate, that weeks before his abduction, Maduro had agreed to key US demands. Indications of this appeared in press reports stating that Venezuela was open for negotiations with the US on all areas of concern including its energy sector.
According to the said reports, the only demand not agreed was that Maduro leave the country with the assurance that extant Bolivarian government agencies and state apparatus would remain intact.
In the circumstances, members of the Maduro administration who were involved in negotiations with the US had probably come to the conclusion that since Maduro was prepared to cave in to US demands in toto, only one human factor remained caught in the crosshairs of the Trump administration.
Venezuelan watchers have posited that had no agreement been reached, the worst possible alternative would have been total collapse of the government, regime change, occupation by the US military, armed resistance to the occupying force, a blood bath, untold suffering for the Venezuelan people and even greater and irreparable damage to the Venezuelan economy.
In the circumstances, it must have been considered best that to avoid an impending catastrophe, the best position would be to leverage the precarious status of the negotiations with a view to convincing key members of Venezuela’s political structure, the security and military including representatives of the private sector and corporate interests, that, in the interest of all Venezuelans, the better option would be to agree to US demands, in order to keep the Venezuelan state and government intact knowing that a heavy price had to be paid. The big question is; was it ever anticipated that it would happen by force of arms, the shooting to death of a number of Maduro’s security detail and by violating their country’s sovereignty?