Dear Editor,
The growth of the non-oil economy is critically important for Guyana because it will ultimately determine whether the country’s oil wealth becomes a lasting economic advantage or a source of long-term vulnerability.
Oil resources are finite, global oil prices are inherently volatile and increasingly unpredictable, and the oil industry itself is capital-intensive while generating limited direct employment for Guyanese. These characteristics underscore the reality that the oil sector alone cannot deliver broad-based, stable, and inclusive human development. A strong and diversified non-oil economy is therefore essential at this time. Unfortunately President Irfaan Ali and the PPP/C have done a poor job at developing the non-oil economy over the last five years.
While recent headline economic growth rates have been celebrated by the PPP boys and girls, what they are not telling the nation is that these figures are overwhelmingly driven by the expansion of the oil sector, which is not directly linked to their personal economic well-being. This distinction is important.
Currently more than 80% of the share of oil-sector profits (profit share and royalty vs oil expenses) accrue to foreign companies under existing contractual arrangements, meaning that oil-driven GDP growth does not automatically translate into improved living standards for the majority of Guyanese. As a result, high overall growth rates can coexist with persistent poverty (right now over 58%), income inequality, and limited employment opportunities of proper paying jobs to match the skillset of the Guyanese people.
In this context, non-oil sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, tourism, and services take on heightened importance. These sectors are more labour-intensive, better positioned to support small and medium-sized enterprises, and more capable of generating sustainable household incomes. Without stronger performance in these areas, job creation will remain constrained, private enterprise will struggle to expand, and real household incomes will continue to face extreme pressures.
Concerns also arise when examining Guyana’s debt dynamics through the lens of the non-oil economy. A meaningful assessment of fiscal sustainability requires attention to the debt-to-non-oil GDP ratio, which reflects the domestic economy’s capacity to service public debt independent of volatile oil revenues. Official data indicate that this ratio increased from approximately 56 percent in 2020 to about 70 percent in 2024 (see Ministry of Finance figures). This suggests that debt accumulation has outpaced growth in the non-oil economy during this period.
At the same time, fiscal deficits have widened, necessitating increased borrowing into the future. A growing reliance on domestic borrowing raises additional concerns, including potential crowding out of private investment and upward pressure on prices. These dynamics can disproportionately affect lower-income households, for whom rising living costs erode purchasing power and economic security. The poor man in Guyana is in real danger because of these poor economic policies of the PPP/C Government.
Looking ahead, Guyana must also remain mindful of external risks, including potential increases in global oil supply (as more Venezuelan oil comes online) and associated downward pressure on prices (as promised by President Donald Trump to his people). A less favourable oil-price environment would further highlight the importance of a resilient non-oil economy and prudent fiscal management.
Against this backdrop, there is a strong case for broader national dialogue on economic strategy. The WIN Party encourages the Government to engage constructively with all stakeholders—including political parties, civil society, religious leaders, academia, and the private sector—to explore policy options aimed at strengthening the non-oil economy, improving fiscal sustainability, and ensuring more inclusive growth. My Party Leader Mr. Azruddin Mohamed and our Party (the WIN Party) stand ready to participate once it favourably impacts the poor in Guyana.
As an initial step, greater emphasis could be placed on shifting from deficit-financed spending toward growth-oriented investment. Capital projects should be assessed based on their long-term economic and employment impacts, with priority given to initiatives that expand productive capacity, support private enterprise, and create sustainable jobs. We must not be building roads just for the sake of spending and creating a contract for a friend or a family. Thus, all low impact and graft associated past projects must be curtailed with an action plan to bring this type of behaviour to an end; it must always be about the people rather than the close friends and family members of the PPP/C leaders.
The risks facing the economy are real, but they are not insurmountable. As a responsible opposition party, the WIN Party remains committed to constructive engagement and collaboration in pursuit of policies that enhance the well-being of all Guyanese, particularly those most vulnerable.