Dear Editor,
As Finance Minister Dr. Ashni Singh presented the 2026 National Budget at the Arthur Chung Conference Centre, the numbers confirmed a high-stakes shift in Guyana’s economic destiny. With a balance of US$3.250 billion remaining in the Natural Resource Fund (NRF) after a massive US$2.463 billion withdrawal in 2025, the debate is no longer about when the wealth will arrive, but how fast it should be spent.
The government’s “front-loaded” strategy—investing heavily now to fix decades of infrastructure deficit—is being sold as a visionary leap. However, critics and citizens alike are raising alarms: Is this a blueprint for a modern Guyana, or a “slush fund” for an era of unprecedented corruption? In 2024, the government moved away from the more conservative “Permanent Income” model of the 2019 Act, replacing it with a “Staircase” formula. This new rule allows the government to withdraw a significantly higher percentage of oil revenues each year, leaving less for long-term savings. The Withdrawal Rule Breakdown:
• First US$1 Billion: 100% can be withdrawn.
• Second US$1 Billion: 95% can be withdrawn (up from earlier, more restrictive limits).
• Third US$1 Billion: 90% can be withdrawn.
• Fourth US$1 Billion: 85% can be withdrawn.
• Fifth US$1 Billion: 50% can be withdrawn.
• Excess over US$5 Billion: 10% can be withdrawn.
Under these rules, when Guyana earns US5 billion, it can spend roughly US4.3 billion of it immediately. By comparison, the world-renowned “Norway Model” generally limits spending to just the 3% interest earned on their fund. Guyana is choosing to spend the “seed” rather than just the “fruit.” The administration argues that saving money in a New York bank account makes little sense when Guyanese citizens lack reliable electricity, modern healthcare, or efficient transport.
Infrastructure as a Catalyst: The US$2.46 billion withdrawn in 2025 funded “national development priorities,” including the Gas-to-Energy project, which aims to slash electricity costs by 50%—a move that could spark a manufacturing revolution.
Human Capital: Funds are being directed toward 40,000 new homes and a new network of regional hospitals, aiming to raise the standard of living for the current generation, not just their grandchildren.
Avoiding Debt: By using oil cash now, the government claims it is avoiding high-interest commercial loans, keeping the national debt manageable while still undergoing rapid expansion. The “apprehension” mentioned by observers is rooted in a simple fear: that rapid, massive spending provides the perfect “cover” for institutionalized corruption.
The Slush Fund Risk: Once oil money is transferred from the NRF to the “Consolidated Fund,” it becomes part of the general budget. This makes it difficult for the public to track if a specific “oil dollar” paid for a school or ended up in the pocket of a preferred contractor.
Institutional Overstretch: Guyana’s oversight bodies—like the Public Procurement Commission—were built for a multi-million dollar economy, not a multi-billion dollar one. There is a high risk that “white elephant” projects and inflated contracts will bypass rigorous scrutiny.
The “Dutch Disease”: Flooding a small economy with US$2.5 billion in a single year causes massive inflation. We are already seeing the cost of labour and food skyrocket, which hurts the average Guyanese who isn’t connected to the oil industry or government contracts.
Autocratic Tendencies: With a 2021 Act that placed more control of the NRF Board in the hands of the President’s appointees, the “checks and balances” are seen by many as dangerously thin.
The 2026 Budget confirms that the “Norway Model” of long-term saving has been officially traded for a “Singapore Model” of hyper-speed development. It is a gamble on execution. If the new roads and power plants create a thriving non-oil economy, the government will be seen as visionary. If they lead to crumbling, overpriced projects and a new class of “oil billionaires” while the poor get poorer, the NRF will be remembered as a missed opportunity for a generation.