Dear Editor,
Rupture and upheaval have characterised the international trade landscape in 2025. Perspectives on whether this represents progress or peril diverge sharply depending on whom you ask. Those who believe in the dividends of international institutions, laws, principles and norms may argue that there has been a tumultuous shift from the established order.
From a Washington perspective, actions, such as the shift to reciprocal tariffs, bilateral trade deals, and the halt to global sustainability initiatives, are intended to safeguard national interests. The CARICOM-Caribbean perspective and reality is one in which the multilateral rules-based order established in 1945 remains essential for survival in a globalised world. CARICOM itself faltered in 2025, and given the temperaments of major powers at play, the organisation must solidify itself or risk becoming collateral damage in the agendas of bigger players. To explore the Caribbean reality, this article employs a year-in-review analysis to assess global and regional trade developments in 2025 and forecast 2026.
A Global View: Looking Back to Look Forward
The past year brought a mix of global and regional developments. Although there were some encouraging moments, challenges seemed more prevalent. Globally, despite instability, policy shifts, and international tensions, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) reports that trade volumes climbed to a record $35 trillion in 2025. Equally notable was the adoption of the World Trade Organization (WTO) Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies, which underpins ocean sustainability and China’s decision not to seek Special and Differential Treatment (S&T) in future WTO agreements. Amid optimism about an increase in global trade volumes, there is always the question: to what extent is this growth experienced in Caribbean states? Significantly, Beijing’s decision to forgo S&T status is a major upside for developing countries, and, by extension, Caribbean nations. The previous self-declared classification has been a hurdle in negotiations and stood as an obstacle for ‘developing countries’ deriving S&T benefits. Notwithstanding China’s pronouncement, India’s developing-country status will undoubtedly remain a S&T sticking point in negotiations, but this debate is outside the scope of this piece.
Turning to challenges, 2025 did not usher in change to the longstanding paralysis of the WTO’s Appellate Body, but instead saw a proliferation of trade restrictions to the tune of 2,500, almost 5 times the number recorded when compared to 10 years ago. The tariff turmoil introduced under the US’s “Liberation Day” on April 2, 2025, was a substantial part of the increase, even though some measures have been rolled back. In the case of the Caribbean, collective advocacy by the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) Heads of Government, supported by regional and US-based private sector interests, led to the removal of reciprocal tariffs initially announced for CARICOM on key exports in the agriculture, food and chemicals sectors.
Climate Action Unravels
Sustainability initiatives, an existential need for CARICOM countries, were impacted by US President Donald Trump’s return to office in January 2025. President Trump signed an executive order directing the US’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, a vital instrument for managing climate change. Regrettably, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and associated agreements, programmes and funding were also targeted. Similarly, the vote on the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) Net-Zero Framework, aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions in shipping, also stalled under pressure from oil-reliant countries, namely the US and Saudi Arabia.
Why harp on the state of these initiatives, one might ask? Here’s why. Industries, trade and the environment intersect. Whether it is in natural resources used or the energy used in production or shipping, profit costs. Climate change is a cost and a lived reality of Caribbean states, and commitments are needed. Surely, the devastation from three months ago reflects the Caribbean reality, with Hurricane Melissa causing an estimated US$8.8 billion in damage in Jamaica alone, while countries such as Cuba and Haiti are still rebuilding.
Regional Reality: CARICOM’s 2025
CARICOM’s 2025 delivered a mix of achievements and disappointments. One significant success for CARICOM in 2025 was the implementation of full free movement by four members (Barbados, Belize, Dominica, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines). In addition to deepening integration, this move allows for safe and managed migration, with nationals of these countries having the right to live and work without work permits. Another notable accomplishment was hosting CARIFESTA XV in Barbados. Events like CARIFESTA are integral to deepening regional identity, and this edition was projected by CARICOM to bring more than 2,500 delegates from 25 participating countries. The conclusion of the Third Round of negotiations to update the CARICOM-Colombia Trade and Economic Cooperation Agreement (TECA) also represented a significant step towards fostering hemispheric trade relations.
Less encouragingly, the spirit of Article 6 of the Revised Treaty of Chaguaramas has also weakened in 2025 and will likely continue to weaken in 2026 if the 2025 pattern persists. While this Article calls for the “enhanced co-ordination of Member States’ foreign and [foreign] economic policies”, member states prioritised national interests and unilateral decision making, publicly displaying disunity. Communication between CARICOM leaders became contentious, with Heads of Governments trading barbs across Caribbean waters. Public divisions emerged over the bombing of Venezuelan vessels in Caribbean waters, the ‘zone of peace’ philosophy, and the relevance of CARICOM for navigating a globalised world.
A worrying factor that has affected the regional grouping in 2025 and will continue to affect them in 2026 is the “Donroe Doctrine”, that is, the US’s revival of the 1800s hegemonic philosophy that the US exercises a sphere of influence in the Americas. CARICOM states are extremely vulnerable economically, and with the US being the major trading partner for most states, this means that there is a power dynamic at play which will restrict policy options for CARICOM, given the US’s use of tariffs to punish countries with divergent views. Washington has also not hesitated to threaten visa restrictions and other economic policy options.
Looking Forward
If the start of 2026 reveals anything, it is that the year will likely be equally as disruptive for trade as 2025. The tariff turmoil of 2025 will continue into 2026 as tariffs are seen as a legitimate coercive policy tool for Washington. Sustainability initiatives dependent on US support will face an uphill battle, certainly through 2028. Multilateralism and international law are at an inflexion point, and unless there is a sudden emergence of global leadership to defend these frameworks, their decline will continue.
For 2026, CARICOM must prioritise its regional industrial policy to chart a path towards sustainable and inclusive development. This policy must capture economic diversification, strengthen existing relationships, and foster new ones. Further, the grouping, at this juncture, requires strong leadership and a revamped ideology to harmonise and re-establish its strategic relevance. Navigating today’s volatile international landscape requires small states having coordinated foreign policy, where leaders can use appropriate channels for dialogue. CARICOM’s future depends on breaking with the patterns of 2025.