Dear Editor,
Professors Tarron Khemraj and Randy Persaud wrote a stimulating piece in a Letter in SN (Feb 5, 2026), captioned, “Guyana is successfully transitioning into a state of high human development, as per UNDP data”. Who can dispute the word “transitioning” as the data shows that Guyana has moved from Medium into High. So: the professors are correct on the trajectory and the classification of High (0.700-0.799).
But I have a few issues with their interpretation, which, for my simple taste, is much too strong. Indeed, as I read the comments by bloggers who contributed to the letter, I get the sense they feel the same way. To keep things short, I list below my main reasons, just to give you a flavour:
Improvement in the HDI started decades ago (see chart), but the advance seems to have lost momentum since 2020 despite Guyana’s meteoric rise in GDP growth (the dip in 2021 is due to global Covid);
The authors’ claim that “mathematically and logically, it is improbable for average attainment to rise without acute shortfalls” (meaning, poverty shrinking” is mutually exclusive is false, both conceptually — as the HDI measures the averages of things like life expectancy, etc., but not distribution — and empirically (HDI jumps after national income explodes (due to oil), meanwhile high poverty continues in some social groups (e.g., pensioners) and many hinterland regions (Region I, 7, 8, and 9 in Guyana). Some bloggers correctly mentioned cost of living spikes. And SN has been doing a useful series “how the cost if living is affecting people. 166 latest count.)
It is not strictly correct that the HDI and MPI (Multi\dimensional Poverty Index) are “complementary indicators of the same process.” Conceptually, maybe, but mechanically, no; they are NOT joined at the hip: You can have rising GNI (due to oil and huge diamond discoveries) that causes the HDI jump, and yet living standards don’t budge (the houses and schools have no toilets, housing is bad, children and pregnant mothers suffer from malnutrition, and so on), but the MPI stays high,
You’d notice that despite the rapid rise in Guyana’s GNI (Gross National Income) due to oil, the HDI did not shoot up and that’s because, for good reason, HDI uses log income, in simple language, large percentage income increases translate into small HDI changes. Yet, it does prompt the question: if a rising tide lifts all boats and prosperity trickles down, why has the HDI stayed flat during 2020-2023, coinciding with fast GDP growth averaging 40% (63% in 2022!!!). Material for a serious journal article or thesis!
Students and academics at the University of Guyana have rich material for MSc papers and scholarly research on this broad discussion, growth and living standards, which is just starting to gain traction because glaring discontinuities between high HDI/high economic growth and inequitable income distribution; between the HDI and the MPI, will emerge in the coming years, and the solutions will require serious policy response. Time to start thinking now!
So: go for it, U.G, and thank these two professors for getting the discussion going.