Dear Editor,
Ongoing analysis of the GECOM 2025 official results confirms that Guyana’s political landscape is complex. Voting patterns are emerging that may significantly impact the 2031 national elections.
Comparing 2020 and 2025 GECOM elections data, the valid votes that were cast increased in Regions 1, 2, 7, 8 and 9, and in these same regions, ‘opposition’ votes [WIN + APNU/AFC/ALP/FGM parties] also increased. By contrast, in Regions 3, 4, 5, 6, and 10, the valid votes decreased, and the ‘opposition’ votes also decreased {See GECOM}.
Regions 1, 2, 7, 8 and 9 – The Valid Votes in these five regions increased by 8,322 more than in 2020 – an average increase of 16.52% per region. The estimated average percentages of Guyanese ethnic ancestries in these mainly hinterland regions were 56.83% Indigenous/Amerindian, 26.34% Mixed ancestry, 9.85% Indian ancestry, 6.66% African ancestry, and 0.32% Portuguese, Chinese and European ancestries. As demographic proportions of the Guyanese population, the Indigenous/Amerindian and Mixed ancestries are growing while the other ancestries are slowly declining. In 2025, the total Valid Votes for these five regions was 73,572 which were 16.78% of the national total of 438,467 valid votes {See GECOM}.
What is most interesting is that in these five regions where the Valid Votes increased, the ‘opposition’ parties [WIN + APNU/AFC /ALP/FGM] also increased their total votes by 5,064 more than what they got in 2020 – an average increase of 20.36% per region. On the other hand, the PPP/C got 3,258 more votes than in 2020 – an average increase of 16.47% per region. Consequently, the ‘opposition’ parties got 60.85% of the 8,322 additional valid votes, many of whom were first-time voters. The PPP/C got 39.15% of the additional valid voters. Therefore, more first-time voters supported the ‘opposition’ parties. What are the implications for the 2031 national elections?
Despite the larger number of votes for the ‘opposition’ parties, the PPP/C won four of these five regions (Regions 1, 2, 8 and 9); the WIN party won Region 7. The PPP/C got a total of 42,895 votes with the following percentages – Region 1 (58.92%), Region 2 (64.85%), Region 7 (35.30%), Region 8 (49.80% – won the plurality) and Region 9 (64.55%) – an average majority per region of 54.68% of valid votes. The ‘opposition’ parties got a total of 30,677 votes with the following percentages – Region 1 (41.08%), Region 2 (35.15%), Region 7 (64.70%), Region 8 (50.20%) and Region 9 (35.46%) – an average of 45.32% of all valid votes.
In effect, the PPP/C got 12,218 more votes than the ‘opposition’ parties who were 4.68% short of getting 50% of all valid votes. The PPP/C was 4.68% higher than 50%. The PPP/C victory in these five mainly hinterland regions was a very good victory but it was certainly not a landslide. Regions 3, 4, 5, 6 and 10 – In these five regions, the total Valid Votes decreased by 30,207 compared to 2020 – an average decrease per region of 6.39%. The total Valid Votes in these five regions was 364,895 which were 83.22% of the national total of 438,467 valid votes {See GECOM}.
Compared to Regions 1, 2, 7, 8 and 9, the estimated average percentages of Guyanese ethnic ancestries were reversed – 40.80% Indian ancestry, 32.50% African ancestry, 21.62% Mixed ancestry, 5% Indigenous/Amerindian, and 0.08% Portuguese, Chinese and European ancestries. Valid votes for the ‘opposition’ parties decreased by 36,111 less votes than in 2020 – an average of decrease per region of 13.19% {See GECOM}. In stark contrast, the PPP/C’s valid votes increased by a total of 5,904 more votes than in 2020 – in Region 3 (204 more), Region 4 (6,616 more), Region 5 (106 more), Region 6 (2,120 LESS), and Region 10 (1,098 more). Note that, of these five regions, Region 6 was the only one that had a decrease in votes.
The PPP/C got a total of 199,603 votes which was 54.70% of the 364,895 total valid votes in these five regions. The PPP/C won majorities in Region 3 (67.69%), Region 5 (59.22%) and Region 6 (67.77%), and a plurality (most votes) in Region 4 (48.42%). The WIN party won Region 10 with a majority of 50.32%, while the PPP/C got 20.28% {See GECOM}. The ‘opposition’ parties got a total of 165,292 votes which was 45.30% of the same 364,895 total Valid Votes – the percentages were Region 3 (18.27%), Region 4 (23.01%), Region 5 (18.69%), Region 6 (20.70%) and Region 10 (49.78%). {See GECOM}
In effect, the PPP/C got 34,311 more votes than the ‘opposition’ parties in Regions 3, 4, 5, 6 and 10. The PPP/C’s total percentage was 4.70% higher than 50% and the ‘opposition’ parties were 4.70% short of getting 50% of all valid votes. The PPP/C victory in these five mainly coastal regions was a very good victory but it was certainly not a landslide. Nationally, the PPP/C got 55.31% of all the valid votes cast, increased its total votes by 9,162 in 2025 compared to 2020, won majorities and pluralities in eight of the ten regions, won a 7-seat majority in the National Assembly, and increased support among Guyanese of Indigenous/Amerindian, Mixed and African ancestries. This is unprecedented because no other party has ever achieved this kind of success in the 12 free and fair elections held in Guyana before 1968 and after 1985. On the other hand, the ‘opposition’ total national votes declined by 31,047 in 2025 compared to 2020.
To win in 2031 by a landslide (60% or more of all valid votes) so that the transformation of Guyana could continue, it will be absolutely essential for the PPP/C to continue increasing its support among Guyanese of Mixed and African ancestries, and to maintain its massive support among Guyanese of Indian and Indigenous/Amerindian ancestries.