US$604m oil revenue discrepancy needs explaining — Darsh Khusial, Janette Bulkan & 1 other — Opinion

US$604m oil revenue discrepancy needs explaining

KWDarsh Khusial, Janette Bulkan, Kenrick Hunte

September 19, 2026·3 min read

Published in

Kiskadee Watch ·Sep 19, 2026

Dear Editor,

In the past week, several commentators have stated that the spot price of Brent crude has been between US$120 and US$150 per barrel. This contrasts with the Brent crude futures price, which has been around US$105 per barrel.

In its First Half Report for 2026, the Bank of Guyana (BoG) stated that the average price received for Guyana’s oil during the first six months of the year was US$92.50 per barrel (see Section 2.10). However, the BoG projects that the average price for the entire year will be only US$86 per barrel (see Section 2.11 on page 6).^[1]

That projection is difficult to reconcile with oil prices so far this year. Since the U.S.-led war against Iran began at the end of February, Brent crude averaged approximately US$98 per barrel from March through the end of August. Perhaps the BoG’s US$86 projection can simply be regarded as a forecast that ultimately proves incorrect. After all, predicting future oil prices may fall outside its circle of competence.

However, the oil-price projection is not the most concerning figure in the BoG’s 2026 First Half Report. There are potentially more serious issues when one attempts to reconcile its figures with Guyana’s actual oil production.

Section 15.6 of the Stabroek Block Petroleum Agreement states:^[2]

“The Contractor shall pay, at the Government’s election either in cash based on the value of the relevant Petroleum as calculated pursuant to Article 13 or in kind, a royalty of two percent (2%) of all Petroleum produced and sold … Cash payment shall be due quarterly, thirty (30) days following the end of each calendar quarter.”

Since the Government has been receiving the royalty in cash, as reflected in the Natural Resource Fund (NRF) reports^[3], we examined the quarterly royalty payments reported this year. Under Section 15.6, royalty payments relating to the first half of 2026 should be reflected in the April and July NRF statements.

The royalties reported in those two statements total approximately US$218.7 million, or about US$219 million.

Given that the royalty rate is 2% and the BoG reports an average oil price of US$92.50 per barrel, US$219 million in royalties would imply total oil production of approximately 118 million barrels:

(US$219 million ÷ 2%) ÷ US$92.50 = approximately 118 million barrels

However, when this figure is compared with the production data published by the Government at petroleum.gov.gy^[4], total production for the first six months of 2026 is approximately 163 million barrels. A rough calculation using production of about 900,000 barrels per day for 180 days produces approximately the same result.

That leaves a difference of roughly 45 million barrels.

Surely 45 million barrels cannot be explained by petroleum used for fuel or transportation in petroleum operations.

If Guyana should have received 14.5% of the value of those 45 million barrels—representing a 12.5% profit-oil share plus the 2% royalty—the potential difference is approximately:

45 million barrels × US$92.50 × 14.5% = US$604 million

This raises an important question: Did Guyana forgo approximately US$604 million in oil revenues during the first half of 2026, or is there another explanation for the apparent discrepancy?

The BoG’s projection that oil will average US$86 per barrel for the entire year may ultimately prove as misguided as it presently appears, particularly when September Brent prices are averaging approximately US$110 per barrel. But that involves predicting the future.

The approximately US$604 million discrepancy is different. It relates to oil that was already produced during the first half of 2026.

That is the figure that requires an explanation.

Yours faithfully,
Darsh Khusial
Kenrick Hunte
Janette Bulkan
on behalf of OGGN

References

Guyana earns almost US$2B from oil in first half of 2026 | OilNOW — oilnow.gy ↩
2% royalty not a cost in computing Guyana’s profit oil –Statia - Stabroek News — www.stabroeknews.com ↩
NRF balance amounted to just under US$4B as of May 2026 - Finance Minister tells National Assembly - Guyana Inquirer – Daily Guyana News — guyanainquirer.com ↩
ExxonMobil Guyana production slightly dipped to 903,000 barrels per day | OilNOW — oilnow.gy ↩

Guyana earns almost US$2B from oil in first half of 2026 | OilNOW

oilnow.gy · 2026-07-08

Guyana earns almost US$2B from oil in first half of 2026 | OilNOW Updated: August 13, 2026 # Guyana earns almost US$2B from oil in first half of 2026 By Kemol King July 8, 2026 The Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the holder of Guyana's Natural Resource Fund. Kemol King Guyana received just under US$2 billion in petroleum revenues during the first six months of 2026, according to official notifications published in the Official Gazette. The two Gazette notifications show that US$1.996 billion was deposited into the Natural Resource Fund (NRF) between January and June through profit oil and royalty payments generated from crude production offshore Guyana. US$1.779 billion, representing nearly 90% of those receipts, came from Guyana’s share of profit oil, while the remaining US$218.4 million was earned through royalty payments. The royalty receipts comprised US$110.9 million deposited in January and a further US$107.5 million received in April. The first Gazette notification records US$761.7 million in receipts deposited between January and March. A second notification, published in July, shows another US$1.24 billion received between April and June, bringing first-half inflows to nearly US$2 billion. Under the Production Sharing Agreement (PSA) governing the prolific Stabroek Block, Guyana receives a 2% royalty on all petroleum produced and a 50% share of profit oil, with both revenue streams deposited into the Natural Resource Fund. Profit oil represents the value of crude remaining after recoverable petroleum costs have been allocated in accordance with the PSA. The NRF, established under the Natural Resource Fund Act, functions as Guyana’s sovereign wealth fund. All petroleum revenues are first paid into the Fund before transfers are approved through the national budget. The framework is intended to promote transparency in the management of oil revenues while supporting long-term fiscal stability and intergenerational savings. The latest receipts come as Guyana’s offshore oil industry continues to expand at a remarkable pace. Four floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) vessels, namely Liza Destiny, Liza Unity, Prosperity and ONE GUYANA, are now producing in the Stabroek Block, lifting national crude output to an average of more than 900,000 barrels per day (b/d) during the first half of 2026. Production is expected to increase again before the end of the year with the planned start-up of the Uaru development, which will become Guyana’s fifth producing offshore project. The additional capacity is expected to push national production beyond one million b/d. Guyana’s petroleum revenues have grown rapidly since first oil was achieved in December 2019. Successive project start-ups have transformed the country into one of the world’s fastest-growing oil producers, with offshore developments continuing to advance under operator ExxonMobil and partners Hess and CNOOC. The government has increasingly relied on transfers from the Natural Resource Fund to finance major investments in infrastructure, healthcare, education, housing, and energy, while the Fund continues to accumulate revenues from expanding offshore production. Guyana’s Oil Ledger offers analyses of the latest oil production data and government oil fund receipts, published typically on a fortnightly basis. The column is authored by Kemol King, a journalist specializing in Guyana’s oil and gas sector.

2% royalty not a cost in computing Guyana’s profit oil –Statia - Stabroek News

www.stabroeknews.com · 2022-06-26

Under Article 15.6 of the production sharing agreement (PSA), EEPGL pays a 2% royalty on the value of all petroleum produced and sold. The royalty is not explicitly mentioned as cost recoverable under Annex C, Section 3.1 (without further approval of the Minister of Natural Resources) or 3.2 (with approval of the Minister). Further, it is not mentioned under Section 3.3 of Annex C as a cost not recoverable under the Agreement. ... Statia explained that even though Section 3.4 of Annex C of the PSA, vests the power in ... Minister to determine the recoverability of an expense not covered under the provisions of Section 3, such discretion has not been exercised by the Minister of Natural Resources relative to royalty. ... Section 3.4 of Annex C states “Other costs and expenses not covered or dealt with in the provisions of this Section 3 and which are incurred by the Contractor in the conduct of the Petroleum Operations are recoverable, subject to the approval of the Minister.” ... Articles 11.2 to 11.4 of the PSA outline the methodology for the sharing of profit oil between the contractor and the government, with costs being limited to 75% of total revenue from the sale of petroleum each month. Provision is made for costs exceeding the 75% ‘cap’ to be carried forward to successive months until recouped. ... He further stated that the royalties paid to the government is an “expense incurred” in the production of income for EEPGL but is not allowable in the calculation of cost oil. Moreover, he explained that the government received a total of 14.5% in royalty and profit oil, 2% and 12.5% respectively. He clarified that it is not 14.25% as being reported in some sections of the press.

NRF balance amounted to just under US$4B as of May 2026 - Finance Minister tells National Assembly - Guyana Inquirer – Daily Guyana News

guyanainquirer.com · 2026-07-27

NRF balance amounted to just under US$4B as of May 2026 - Finance Minister tells National Assembly - Guyana Inquirer – Daily Guyana News # NRF balance amounted to just under US$4B as of May 2026 – Finance Minister tells National Assembly 27 July 2026 Finance Minister Dr Ashni Singh Senior Minister in the Office of the President with Responsibility for Finance, Dr Ashni Singh, today presented the Natural Resource Fund (NRF) Annual Report for the fiscal year 2025 to the National Assembly, pursuant to Section 32(4) of the Natural Resource Fund Act 2021, demonstrating the PPP/C Government’s strong track record on governance and transparency and accountability in the management of the oil and gas sector. Minister Singh acknowledged the continued diligence of the members of the NRF Board, the Public Accountability and Oversight Committee, and the Investment Committee in executing their roles in support of this important national institution – the Natural Resource Fund. The Board of Directors of the NRF were re-appointed on August 31 2024, and the members are as follows: 1. Major General (Retired) Joseph Singh, MSS, Chairperson 2. Mr. Dunstan Barrow, A.A., Director (Nominated by the National Assembly) 3. Mr. Ramesh Dookhoo, Director (Representative of the Private Sector) 4. Ms. Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett, Director 5. Professor Compton Bourne, O.E., Director At today’s sitting of the National Assembly, the Speaker of the National Assembly also circulated the Public Accountability and Oversight Committee Annual Report for the fiscal year 2025, pursuant to Section 6(6) of the Natural Resource Fund Act 2021. The Public Accountability and Oversight Committee of the Fund was re-appointed on August 31, 2024 and the members are as follows: 1. Mr. Clement Sealey, Chairperson (Nominee of the National Assembly) 2. Pastor Wendell Jeffrey, Member (Representative of the Religious Community) 3. Ms. Savitri Balbahadur, Member (Representative of the Religious Community) 4. Mr. Abu Zaman, Member (Representative of the Religious Community) 5. Mr. Desmond Sears, Member (Representative of the Private Sector) 6. Mr. Ryan Alexander, Member (Representative of the Private Sector) 7. Mr. Aslim Singh, Member (Representative of Organised Labour) 8. Ms. Dawn Gardener, Member (Representative of Organised Labour) 9. Mr. Teni Housty, Member (Representative of the Professions) The 9-member Public Accountability and Oversight Committee is responsible for providing non-governmental oversight of the operations of the Fund, replacing the cumbersome 22-member committee previously proposed in the NRF Act 2019. The Senior Finance Minister also presented today, Notification of Receipts to the National Assembly of all petroleum revenues paid into the NRF during the period April 1, 2026 to June 30, 2026, pursuant to Section 33 (2) of the NRF Act 2021. The NRF balance at the end of May 2026 amounted to just under US$4 billion. In its Staff Concluding Statement of the 2025 Article IV Mission, the International Monetary Fund commended the Government of Guyana on the progress made to strengthen the management of oil wealth and its fiscal transparency: “The authorities have advanced in enhancing governance of the NRF and modernizing public sector operations. The 2023 NRF and Public Accountability and Oversight Committee Annual Reports have been presented to the National Assembly, regular notifications of receipts of petroleum revenues, as mandated by law, are published in the Official Gazette and presented to the National Assembly, and the Bank of Guyana publishes monthly and quarterly reports of the NRF’s financial performance.”. The PPP/C Government said it will maintain its transparent and accountable management of Guyana’s oil and gas sector, and will ensure that NRF resources are directed toward investments that deliver lasting benefits for current and future generations.

ExxonMobil Guyana production slightly dipped to 903,000 barrels per day | OilNOW

oilnow.gy · 2026-06-02

ExxonMobil Guyana production slightly dipped to 903,000 barrels per day | OilNOW Updated: June 2, 2026 # ExxonMobil Guyana production slightly dipped to 903,000 barrels per day By Kemol King June 2, 2026 The Prosperity FPSO in the Stabroek Block [Source: SBM Offshore] Kemol King Crude oil production offshore Guyana averaged 903,000 barrels per day (b/d) in April 2026, a modest decline from 910,000 b/d in March, according to government data. Output from the four ExxonMobil-operated projects in the Stabroek Block totaled approximately 27 million barrels during the month, down from 28.2 million barrels in March. Despite the monthly decline, production remains near record levels. Over the first four months of 2026, Guyana produced more than 109 million barrels of crude, averaging approximately 911,000 b/d. Production in April was distributed as follows: - Liza 1: 122,000 b/d - Liza 2: 259,000 b/d - Payara: 261,000 b/d - Yellowtail: 262,000 b/d The latest figures continue a gradual decline at the Liza 1 project, Guyana’s first offshore development, while the newer projects maintained output above their original nameplate capacities following optimization work carried out by ExxonMobil. April’s average daily output was the lowest monthly average recorded so far this year. However, the broader trend remains one of sustained high production, supported by strong performance across the Stabroek Block’s newer developments. Elevated crude prices have also helped support revenue generation for Guyana. Oil markets have remained sensitive to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, contributing to stronger prices and higher receipts from crude sales and royalties. Further production growth is expected before the end of the year. ExxonMobil is anticipated to undertake production optimization work at the Yellowtail development, which could increase output from the project to approximately 290,000 b/d. Similar optimization efforts previously lifted production capacity at the previous projects above their initial design rates. The next major increase in national production is expected to come from the Uaru development, which is scheduled to begin production this year. The project is designed to add roughly 250,000 b/d of new capacity, pushing Guyana’s total oil production capability above the one million b/d threshold. ExxonMobil has said Uaru is expected to produce approximately 250,000 b/d once operational. Startup is expected on Guyana’s Gas-to-Energy project at Wales this year. The government’s contractor Lindsayca is working to complete key onshore infrastructure needed to receive natural gas from the Liza field. Initial gas delivery is expected to occur at a rate of about 50 million cubic feet per day, supporting power generation and the extraction of natural gas liquids. All offshore oil production in Guyana currently comes from the Stabroek Block, where ExxonMobil serves as operator with a 45% interest. Its partners are Hess, now part of Chevron, with 30%, and CNOOC with 25%. Guyana’s Oil Ledger offers analyses of the latest oil production data and government oil fund receipts, published typically on a fortnightly basis. The column is authored by Kemol King, a journalist specializing in Guyana’s oil and gas sector.