Mid-Year Report 2026 a masterpiece of deception

Surujdai Juglall

October 4, 2026·4 min read

Thread

Oct 3, 2026KW

Oil wealth will be pledged away to creditorsCharles Sugrim

Oct 4, 2026KW

Mid-Year Report 2026 a masterpiece of deception

Surujdai Juglall

Dear Editor,

I fully endorse the sentiments expressed by one of the WIN Party leaders, Mr. Charles Sugrim in yesterday’s edition of Kiskadee Watch captioned “Reckless borrowing by Guyana gov’t will see our oil wealth pledged away to banks, other creditors”^[1]. I wish to add further evidence found in the Ministry of Finance’s Mid-Year Report 2026^[2].

The fiscal deterioration is worse than projected

Mr. Sugrim correctly notes that the Overall Deficit After Grants deteriorated from negative $35 billion in HY 2025 to negative $105 billion in HY 2026. The picture is worse when examining the Non-Financial Public Sector deficit of $108.9 billion, which includes public enterprises. GPL and GuySuCo are leaders in the plunder of people’s money—spent on Turkish businessmen and big contractors now cutting canes. The small man gets very little.

The Natural Resource Fund is being depleted

The NRF received US$2,063.8 million in HY 2026 but withdrew US$1,020 million. The Report warns: “As additional projects are approved, and their development costs enter the cost bank, the profit-oil ratio will move again.”^[3] Yes—downwards! With four more oil projects awaiting approval, the next four years will bring economic hardship. That is President Irfaan Ali’s legacy – hardship on the poor people of Guyana.

Debt sustainability: The elephant in the room

Borrowing tripled between HY 2025 and HY 2026:

Net external borrowing: $19 billion → $71 billion
Net domestic borrowing: $16 billion → $35 billion
Total Government Guaranteed debt: US$8.6 billion (end-June 2026), up from US$7.7 billion (end-2025)

The Report’s claim of a 28.6% debt-to-GDP ratio is deeply misleading. Oil accounts for 81.2% of GDP and is temporary. Strip out oil, and the debt-to-non-oil-GDP ratio exceeds 150%; worse than under President Jagdeo. This is not prudence; it is masking insolvency behind oil-inflated figures.

Interest payments rose by GUY$5 billion in HY 2026 to GUY$13.8 billion. At this pace, annual interest will exceed GUY$20 billion by year-end. This is our money flowing to lenders, not the citizens.

Agriculture: The silent crisis

Agriculture contracted by 0.5% in HY 2026; “other crops” fell 6.4%. This sector employs the largest share of Guyana’s population and could feed the oil boats but is failing at this essential task.

The Report blames rainfall. But after eight years of oil wealth, the government has failed to invest sensibly in drainage. It was Cheddi Jagan who dreamed of an effective MMA Scheme and Black Bush Polder Scheme. Under Zulfikar Mustapha and Irfaan Ali, that dream has been destroyed. Only $24.7 billion of $82 billion budgeted for drainage was spent; a 30% execution rate. Minister Mustapha’s performance is an “F” grade.

El Niño conditions are expected in H2 2026. The government’s response? “Shade houses” and “climate-smart planning.” This is a confession of unpreparedness. Another “F” Grade.

Labour shortages: A self-inflicted wound

The Report admits: “the binding constraint faced is no longer the creation of jobs, but the supply and composition of the skills available to fill them.” The government launched an $829.7 billion Public Sector Investment Programme with deficient human capacity, the programme’s main ingredient. This shows the Irfaan Ali Government has lost its competence to think; a far cry from the Jagdeo era when the State Planning Secretariat under Mr. Clyde Roopchand^[4] got more done with less through old-fashioned monitoring and evaluation. Who is monitoring this $829 billion? Ghost?

The result: contractors robbing the Government and getting away with this highway robbery because they have friends in Office of the President, project delays, cost overruns, and slow impact on people’s lives. Manpower studies are slated for H2 2026. This is more of the PPP boys and girls trying to close the gates after the programme has begun. This is backwards planning, a direct reflection of President Ali, a man with a Degree in Planning.

BIT trained only 706 persons; GOAL graduated 3,800. These numbers are microscopic. The government is building hospitals, roads, and bridges without training enough doctors, nurses, engineers, and technicians. The Cabinet and Permanent Secretaries are running around like headless chickens, reacting to crises rather than implementing a 10-year plan that is shared with the people.

Conclusion

The Mid-Year Report 2026 is a masterpiece of deception; impressive numbers masking a Ponzi Scheme. When it crumbles, only the poor will suffer since some of these senior government officials are now multi-billionaires and have generational wealth after six years in Office. Guyana is experiencing a classic resource curse: rapid GDP growth driven by oil, rising debt, declining agriculture, institutional bottlenecks, and opaque fiscal transfers.

The NRF is being depleted. The debt-to-non-oil-GDP ratio is alarming – 150%. Labour shortages are delaying projects. Agriculture is contracting. Inflation is hurting the poor.

Like everything in life, boom must be followed by bust, and our bust is here already. What is even worse, the PPP/C has no plan for it.

Finally, it is good to see the WIN Party as the main opposition writing on these policy defects. This must be continued to ensure the people know that there are people out there in the opposition who can understand the crisis and can create a plan to take the nation out of this economic crisis affecting the poor people of Guyana. This letter from Mr. Charles Sugrim warms my heart since it means that the opposition does have people who are thinking on the big issues.

Yours faithfully,
Surujdai Juglall

References

Reckless borrowing by Guyana gov’t will see our oil wealth pledged away to banks, other creditors — kiskadeewatch.com ↩
Guyana GDP First Half 2026: 33.3% Growth, Oil and Non-Oil Breakdown — www.lacaribenanews.com ↩
President needs to clarify this 39.8% oil share figure - Kiskadee Watch — kiskadeewatch.com ↩
Clyde Roopchand passes away - Stabroek News — www.stabroeknews.com ↩

Reckless borrowing by Guyana gov’t will see our oil wealth pledged away to banks, other creditors

kiskadeewatch.com · 2026-10-03

Dear Editor, The Overall Deficit After Grants in the Guyanese public finance has deteriorated dramatically over the last 12 months under the watch of Dr. Ashni Singh. It declined from negative $35 bil

Guyana GDP First Half 2026: 33.3% Growth, Oil and Non-Oil Breakdown

www.lacaribenanews.com · 2026-09-15

La Caribeña News title card presenting a headline on Guyana's 33.3 per cent growth alongside a table of 2026 sector growth forecasts and key statistics. Figures on the card reported by Mid-Year Report 2026, Appendix A1, Appendix A2 and others. Quick summary: Guyana's real GDP grew an estimated 33.3 per cent in the first half of 2026, the Ministry of Finance's Mid-Year Report shows. Non-oil growth was 10.1 per cent, down from 14.0 per cent a year earlier. The full-year forecast rose to 20.8 per cent, while the non-oil forecast was cut from 10.8 to 10.2 per cent. ... The Mid-Year Report 2026 published by the Ministry of Finance carries the detail behind both numbers. Its own tables show the full-year forecast for the whole economy raised, and the forecast for the economy outside oil lowered. ... *Source: Ministry of Finance, Mid-Year Report 2026, Appendix A2, citing the Bureau of Statistics.* ... Non-oil growth in the first half of 2025 was 14.0 per cent. For the full year, Budget 2026 projected non-oil growth of 10.8 per cent. The Mid-Year Report revises that to 10.2 per cent. | Sector | Budget 2026 forecast | First half 2026 | Revised 2026 forecast | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Whole economy | 16.2% | 33.3% | 20.8% | | Non-oil economy | 10.8% | 10.1% | 10.2% | | Construction | 25.4% | 24.7% | 27.6% | | Other mining and quarrying | 10.3% | 40.0% | 14.9% | | Services | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.7% | | Gold | 5.4% | 11.3% | 5.4% | | Manufacturing | 12.9% | 3.0% | 10.7% | | Agriculture, forestry and fishing | 7.6% | -0.5% | 2.9% | *Source: Ministry of Finance, Mid-Year Report 2026, Appendix A1.* ... - 33.3%: real GDP growth, first half of 2026. 7.5%: first half of 2025. Source: Mid-Year Report 2026, Appendix A1. - 10.1%: non-oil growth, first half of 2026, against 14.0% in the first half of 2025. - Full-year forecasts: whole economy 16.2% at Budget, revised to 20.8%; non-oil 10.8% at Budget, revised to 10.2%. - 78.9%: petroleum and gas share of real GDP, first half of 2026 (68.1% in 2023). Source: Appendix A2, Bureau of Statistics. ... Real GDP grew by an estimated 33.3 per cent, according to the Ministry of Finance's Mid-Year Report 2026. The non-oil economy grew by an estimated 10.1 per cent. In the first half of 2025, overall growth was 7.5 per cent and non-oil growth 14.0 per cent. ... What is Guyana's ... The Mid-Year Report projects real GDP growth of 20.8 per cent, up from 16.2 per cent in Budget 2026, and non-oil growth of 10.2 per cent, down from the Budget's 10.8 per cent.

President needs to clarify this 39.8% oil share figure - Kiskadee Watch

kiskadeewatch.com · 2026-09-24

However, in its 2026 Half-Year Report, issued a few weeks later on August 28, 2026, by the Honourable Dr. Ashni K. Singh, M.P., Senior Minister in the Office of the President with Responsibility for Finance, the Bank of Guyana (BoG) appears to imply that Guyana’s profit share will be less than 30%. That would amount to billions of US dollars less than the figure implied by President Ali. When President Ali made his statement, he implied that the maximum cost recovery going forward would be 20.4%. However, in section 3.63 on page 21, the BoG states: “The Stabroek Block partners will continue to recover current costs, lower than 75 percent of gross revenue, and Government will receive more than 12.5 percent of gross revenue in profit oil. As additional projects are approved, and their development costs enter the cost bank, the profit-oil ratio will move again.” This statement essentially means that the cost bank can rise to as much as 75% of gross revenue. Stated another way, Guyana’s profit share going forward could range from 12.5% to 39.8%. When Exxon referred to US$55 billion in capital and operating costs being paid off by the end of 2Q2026, it was not clearly stated which projects were included. However, one could reasonably assume that Exxon was referring to the first seven oil projects. The eighth oil project has already been approved, while the ninth oil project is in the process of being approved. Thus, one can assume that the 39.8% profit share could be short-lived. ... the BoG ... s relatively low US$86 full ... price assumption, its projected US$5.97 billion in profit ... appears to imply that Guyana receives only about 27.4% to 30% of second-half gross oil revenue, depending on when the fifth project starts. ... President Ali needs to clarify: when he stated that Guyana will receive 39.8% of the Stabroek Block oil revenues, did he mean that this level would apply for only a couple of months?

Clyde Roopchand passes away - Stabroek News

www.stabroeknews.com · 2016-03-31

Clyde Roopchand passes away - Stabroek News # Clyde Roopchand passes away By Staff Editor March 31, 2016 Former Ministry of Finance’s Chief Planning Officer, Clyde Roopchand passed away in New York on Wednesday. He was 70 years old. Roopchand served for many years in the State Planning Secretariat and the Ministry of Finance. In a statement yesterday, President David Granger expressed condolences to the wife and relatives of Roopchand. Clyde Roopchand Former President Donald Ramotar, who along with working with Roopchand was also his friend, praised him. “I worked with him and enjoyed working with him. He was extremely knowledgeable and a resource- oriented person. There were many, many projects he helped to advance in this country. He will be missed tremendously but his family and friends can be consoled that he made a sterling contribution to Guyana,” he told Stabroek News. “He was friendly, approachable, down-to-earth and he had friends from all strata but I must say he was very aggressive when it came to his work. Many of the public servants that passed through his hand benefited from his tutelage,” he added. In a statement last night, former President and Leader of the Opposition, Bharrat Jagdeo said: “It is with deep regret and sadness that I received the news of the passing of Clyde Roopchand. I have known Clyde for a long time dating back to my early days as an economist in the State Planning Secretariat. He served as Chief Planning Officer of Guyana and did so with distinction. His commitment to National Development was unquestionable and his service to our people was selfless and exemplary. “During the period I served as Minister of Finance and President he held numerous posts including Director of the CDB, alternate Governor of the CDB, Guyana’s representative to the Board of Governors meetings of the IDB and IMF, Chairman of the GRA Board among numerous other regional and international posts. His institutional knowledge and immense experience are a great loss to our country. He guided the process of preparing the Capital budget and Public Sector Investment Programme. “His work in following up the implementation of numerous decisions made on cabinet outreaches and the key role he played in the implementation of various development initiatives in the Regions brought him close to many people who live in those areas. Clyde Roopchand’s contributions to Guyana spanned many decades serving every government and President in our post independence history. He was an outstanding Public Servant.”