www.minecofin.gov.rw · 2025-12-15The Annual Economic Report (AER) covers Rwanda’s Fiscal Year (FY) 2024/25, from July 2024
to June 2025. The Fiscal Year (FY) 2024/25 marks the first year of implementation of the
5-Year National Strategy for Transformation (NST2).
In fiscal year 2024/25, Rwanda’s economy grew by 6.3 percent, slowing down from 10.6
percent in 2023/24. This slowdown was mainly caused by weaker performance in the industry
sector, which dropped sharply from 17 percent growth in 2023/24 to 3 percent in 2024/25,
and by a continued decline in the agriculture sector, which fell from 6 percent to 4 percent.
while the services sector remained the main driver of economic activity, growing by 9 percent.
Inflationary pressures eased significantly in 2024/25, with headline inflation falling to
an average of 5.5 percent from 13.1 percent in 2023/24, mainly due to a sharp drop in food
inflation from 25.2 percent to 4.4 percent, supported by improved agricultural production.
However, transport inflation rose from 9.3 percent to 16.3 percent, while inflation for alcoholic
beverages declined from 13.3 percent to 3.8 percent. Domestic goods inflation decreased from
14 percent to 4.8 percent, and imported inflation moderated from 11.1 percent to 7.7 percent,
reflecting lower inflation among trading partners.
Labour market indicators showed modest improvements. The labour force participation rate
remained stable at 62.2 percent, compared to 62.5 percent in 2023/24. The employment-to
population ratio increased slightly from 52 percent to 53.8 percent, with gains observed across
gender, residence, and age categories. Importantly, the unemployment rate declined to 13.4
percent in 2024/25, down from 16.8 percent in 2023/24. However, disparities persisted, with
unemployment higher among women (15.8 percent) than among men (11.8 percent), and more
pronounced among youth aged 16–20 than among adults aged 31 and above. Urban and rural
unemployment rates were nearly identical at 13.7 percent and 13.3 percent, respectively.
The total budget for Fiscal year 2024/25 was FRW 5,690.1 billion, representing an 11 percent
increase from the revised budget of 2023/24 that amounted to FRW 5,115.6 billion. In February
2025, Parliament approved a revised FY 2024/25 budget of FRW 5,816.4 billion, which was FRW
126.3 billion higher than the original budget. The Domestic resources totalled FRW 3,691.7
billion (63.5 percent of the budget), while external grants were projected at FRW 621.2 billion
(10.7 percent) and external loans at FRW 1,503.5 billion (25.8 percent).
...
In FY 2024/25, total revenue collections reached FRW 4,174.0 billion and was lower by FRW
18.8 billion compared to the projections in the revised budget. This shortfall was mainly driven
by lower other revenue collection associated with lower PKO reimbursement, as well as lower
external budget grants disbursement. These shortfalls outweighed excess in tax collection
driven by tax on goods and services and tax on international trade.
Total Expenditure amounted to FRW 5,188.3 billion and surpassed the projected figure in the
revised budget of FRW 5,159.9 billion. This excess was attributed to higher capital expenditures
due to higher-than-expected project loans disbursement, which outweighed the shortfall in
expenses (Recurrent expenditure) attributed to delays in PKO reimbursement led to lower
spending under the use of goods and services.
Net financing through the incurrence of liabilities reached FRW 1,389.5 billion, higher than
the planned FRW 1,267.7 billion. This increase was mainly due to higher-than-expected
disbursements of foreign project loans to support investment in the energy, ICT, and social
sectors. These inflows helped offset a shortfall in budget loan disbursements caused by delays
from the AfDB and enabled the government to acquire financial assets worth FRW 364.9 billion.
In Fiscal Year 2024/25, the BNR decisively relaxed its monetary policy following subdued
inflationary pressure. Coupled with abundant liquidity in the banking sector led to a notable
decline in the interbank rate, which fell by 139 basis points in Fiscal Year 2024/25, averaging
6.78 percent compared to 8.17 percent in the previous year. The CBR was lowered by 50 basis
points from 7 to 6.5 percent between July 2024 and June 2025, while maintaining a stable
monetary policy until May 2025, considering a lack of significant inflation risks.
New authorized loans continued to grow, but at a slower rate. In 2024/25, NALs rose by 6.52
percent to FRW 2,303.9 billion, compared to 33.0 percent growth in 2023/24. The slowdown
was mainly due to a base effect from large projects financed in 2023/24 and slightly tighter
bank lending conditions in 2024/25. Consequently, credit to the private sector grew by 16.8
percent by end-June 2025, down from 22.4 percent growth in the same period of 2024.
At the end of the FY 2024/25, the overall budget deficit stood at FRW 1,178.3 billion, equivalent
to 5.5 percent of GDP, and was higher by FRW 80.3 billion compared to the projected deficit of
FRW 1,098 billion. The deficit was financed through the incurrence of liabilities amounting to
FRW 1,389.5 billion, which allowed the acquisition of financial assets worth FRW 364.9 billion.
The current account deficit widened by 3.6 percent, from USD 1,851.3 million to USD 1,918.1
million, primarily from a 4.5 percent deterioration in primary income deficit and a 12.4 percent
decline in secondary income.
...
Rwanda’s GDP growth for the 2024/25 period was 6.3%, a slowdown compared to 10.6% in
2023/24. This decrease was mainly due to a weaker performance in the industrial sector,
which dropped from 17% growth in 2023/24 to just 3% in 2024/25, from a sharp decline in the
construction sector of -1 percent from 24 percent recorded in the previous year. Similarly, the
agriculture sector also saw a decline, with growth falling from 6% in 2023/24 to a decrease of
4% in 2024/25 due to the reduction in food crops, whose production growth fell from 6 percent
in 2023/24 to 0 percent in 2024/25
Despite a slowdown in agriculture and industry, the service sector continued to be the main
driver of economic activity, achieving a growth rate of 9% in 2024/25, down from 11% in
2023/24. The wholesale and retail trade within the services sector saw strong growth of 12% in
2023/24. However, the transport sector and hotels & restaurants experienced sharp declines,
growing only 4% and 16%, respectively. In contrast, the industry sector recorded a significant
growth of 17% compared to the previous period.
...
Real ... 0 ... 5)
...
Despite a slowdown in agriculture and industry, the service sector continued to be the main driver of economic activity, achieving a growth rate of 9% in 2024/25, down from 11% in 2023/24. The wholesale and retail trade within the services sector saw strong growth of 12% in 2023/24. However,
the transport sector and hotels & restaurants experienced sharp declines, growing only 4% and 16%,
respectively. In contrast, the industry sector recorded a significant growth of 17% compared to the
previous period.
Figure 3: Real sector Growth (2016/2017 to 2024/25)
...
Source: MINECOFIN
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For the year 2024/25, the services sector remained the largest contributor to GDP, adding 4.5 percentage points to overall growth, though this was a decrease from 5.6 points recorded in 2023/24.
The industrial sector's contribution drastically fell to 0.7 percentage points, from 3.8 points in the previous year. Meanwhile, the agriculture sector's contribution declined to 0.8 percentage points in 2024/25, down from 1.3 points in 2023/24.
For the year 2024/25, the services sector remained the largest contributor to GDP, adding 4.5 percentage points to overall growth, though this was a decrease from 5.6 points recorded in 2023/24. The industrial sector’s contribution drastically fell to 0.7 percentage points, from 3.8 points in the previous year. Meanwhile, the agriculture sector’s contribution declined to 0.8 percentage points in 2024/25, down from 1.3 points in 2023/24.
...
Table 3: Real sector growth by sector (FY 2021/2022 to FY2024/2025)
2022/23
6.80%
2%
1%
2%
1%
6%
8%
8%
5%
10%
10%
15%
18%
2022/23
6.5
0.1
-0.2
0
0
1.4
0.1
0.6
0.6
5.2
0.8
1.3
0.6
2024/25
6.30%
4%
0%
11%
13%
3%
2%
8%
-1%
9%
13%
4%
3%
2024/25
6.3
0.8
0
0.2
0.4
0.7
0
0.6
-0.1
4.5
1.2
0.3
0.1
2023/24
10.60%
6%
6%
-2%
14%
17%
19%
8%
24%
11%
12%
11%
16%
2023/24
10.6
1.3
0.7
0
0.4
3.8
0.3
0.6
2.8
5.6
1.1
0.9
0.5
growth rate Contribution to GDP
2021/22
9.00%
2%
-1%
3%
8%
13%
17%
3%
22%
11%
5%
17%
31%
2021/22
9.4
0.8
0.2
0.1
0.2
2.8
0.3
0.3
2.3
5.6
0.4
1.3
0.9
...
(Constant ... 2024=100)
GDP
AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY & FISHING
Food crops
Export crops
Livestock & livestock products
...
INDUSTRY
Mining & quarrying
Manufacturing
Construction
SERVICES
Wholesale & retail trade
Transport
Hotels & restaurants
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Source: ... CO ... based ... NISR data
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The net investment in non-financial assets, or capital expenditure, amounted to FRW 1,771.6 billion. This figure was FRW 52.4 billion higher compared to the estimates, which is the revised budget of FRW 1,719.2 billion. This performance is attributed to accelerated drawdown of foreign project loans, which boosted investment projects specifically, in the social sector to help reduce poverty, boosting the energy sector to strengthen industrialization, as well as in the ICT sector to facilitate digitalization.
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2.2.1.3. Financing performance
At the end of the FY 2024/25, the overall budget deficit stood at FRW 1,178.3 billion, equivalent
to 5.5 percent of GDP, and was higher by FRW 80.3 billion compared to the projected deficit of
FRW 1,098 billion. The deficit was financed through the incurrence of liabilities amounting to
FRW 1,389.5 billion, which allowed the acquisition of financial assets worth FRW 364.9 billion.
At the end of June 2025, Total External loan disbursed were FRW 1,527.3 billion, which exceeded
the revised budget estimates by FRW 23.8 billion. This excess is attributed to higher-than
expected foreign project loans disbursement for investment mainly for energy, ICT, and social
sectors, which offset the shortfall in budget loan disbursement due to delays in Afdb loan
disbursement.
Regarding domestic liabilities, new issuances amounted to FRW 205.1 billion, exceeding the
projected figure of FRW 110.5 billion. This excess is attributed to delays in the disbursement
of external budget loans, which resulted in higher domestic borrowing than initially planned
to offset the delayed funds. Domestic debt repayment was FRW 95.7 billion, higher than the
estimated amount in the revised budget of FRW 79 billion due to prepayment of some loans.
At the end of June 2025, the net acquisition of financial assets amounted to FRW 364.9 billion
and was higher by FRW 64.2 billion. This performance was partially due to the accumulation
of currency and deposit of FRW 200.9 billion; this excess was attributed to the disbursement of
some development partners’ funds.
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Exports of goods excluding Gold rose by 10.4 percent in value, reaching USD 1,739.0 million from USD 1,575.7 million for 2023/24, mainly due to a positive growth in coffee exports, which resulted from a favourable international market price and an increase in volume from higher production, resulting in coffee trees’ rejuvenation.
Imports of goods excluding Gold increased by 5.0 percent, driven mainly by an increase in consumer goods by 11.3 percent, capital goods by 0.9 percent, intermediate goods by 9.8 percent, and energy products by 1.6 percent. The value of exports was dominated by other products and re-exports of non-fuel products. While imports of was led by consumer goods and intermediate goods.
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Table 8: Summary of Trade balance (Value in Million USD and volume in Metric Tons)
Exports
Coffee
Tea
Minerals (3Ts)
Other ordinary products
Re-export
Pyrethrum
Hides and skins
ICBT
Imports
Consumer goods
Capital goods
Intermediate goods
Energy products
Trade Deficit
2023/2024 2024/2025 2024/2025 Volume 1,538.1 16.5 38.5 9.6 820.7 649.4 0.0 3.3 0.0 4,151.3 1,490.6 115.2 1,702.6 842.9 -2613.2
Volume
1,596.6
20.5
37.7
10.5
886.1
638.2
0.0
3.6
272.0
4,845.5
1,498.1
141.3
2,180.3
1,025.7
-3248.9
Volume 3.8% 24.5% -2.1% 9.8% 8.0% -1.7% 5.3% 7.5%
16.7%
0.5%
22.6%
28.1%
21.7%
0.2
Value
1,575.7
78.7
115.0
206.4
347.6
669.4
7.6
0.5
150.0
4,010.4
1,259.5
970.0
1,049.6
693.9
-2434.7
Value
1,739.0
116.2
111.0
265.0
1,070.6
638.8
7.5
0.3
167.9
4,147.2
1,401.8
979.0
1,152.7
705.1
-2408.1
Value 10.4% 47.6% -3.4% 28.4% 208.0% -4.6% -1.7% -36.6% 11.9% 3.4% 11.3% 0.9% 9.8% 1.6% 0.0
Source: MINECOFIN staff compiled from BNR data
Ordinary products (like flowers, other minerals, live animals, among others) make the largest share of exports, accounting for 61.6 percent of the total export value, followed by re-exports by 36.7 percent. Other significant categories include minerals (3Ts), which occupy 15.2 percent, informal cross-border trade (ICBT) with 9.7 percent, 6.7 percent for coffee, and tea with 6.4 percent.
Figure 5: Exports by categories, percentage share
Source: MINECOFIN staff plot based on BNR data.
The import value was driven by consumer goods with 33.8 percent, mainly food like rice, sugar, and
cooking oil, reflecting higher domestic demand, intermediate goods with 27.8 percent, and capital
goods by 23.6 percent, driven by machinery and electronic imports consistent with increasing
investment and government initiative to increase telephone penetration. while energy products
occupied 17.0 percent of total imports.
Volume-wise, intermediate goods, consumer goods, and energy products drove the import volume
by 45.0 percent, 30.9 percent, and 21.2 percent, respectively.
Figure 6: Imports by categories, percentage share
